Trump’s Victory Has the Fashion Industry Asking: What Just Happened?

The fashion industry appears to have been stunned into silence by Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the US presidential election.

Relatively few top American designers or brands have posted about the election on social media, in stark contrast to the industry’s outpouring of shock and dismay following Trump’s 2016 win. Requests for comment from the BoF team on Wednesday were largely declined or went unanswered. More than one figure said they were “still processing.”

The lack of public engagement is in line with the industry’s calculated approach leading up to the election, which generally stuck to neutral rhetoric such as “get out the vote” rather than partisan messaging. This is par for the course; mainstream brands rarely go out on a limb, politically, for fear of alienating their ideologically diverse customer base.

“There’s a little bit of fear … There’s caution in the fashion industry. If you’re selling at the mall you’re selling to everybody,” said Susan Scafidi, founder of the Fashion Law Institute.

Some are still considering what Trump’s victory means for their businesses, the industry and beyond.

“There’s just this real sense of uncertainty and the unpredictability of it is alarming,” said Diotima designer and CFDA womenswear designer of the year Rachel Scott, pointing to Trump’s stances on immigration, abortion rights, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and tariffs. She added his overall tone is “really anti the culture that exists in fashion.”

Despite the unease, Scott is feeling emboldened when it comes to her collections: “I’m going to dig deeper into my community, I’m going to be more radical in what I say, especially now that I have more attention than I’ve ever had before … I hope it’s the same for others.”

For Willy Chavarria, who has collaborated with the American Civil Liberties Union throughout the year and whose designs centre around Mexican-American culture, elevation of immigrant stories and an inclusive vision of Americana, Trump’s victory served as a wake-up call; it’s already shifted the tone of his next collection and approach to design.

“There’s no longer any room for fashion to bring us to a place of fantasy, outside of reality. Fashion is often where we go to escape, I don’t think we have that privilege anymore,” said Chavarria.

Others are reflective of fashion’s own role in fuelling disenchantment among Trump’s base.

“The American culture machine has been facing obsolescence for a long time due to its inability to escape the coastal echo chamber,” New York-based, Midwest-born designer Elena Velez said in a statement. “The industry’s shock today around the overwhelming Trump victory shows what a poor job has been done to highlight diversity of perspective in the fashion industry.”

Mixed Signals

Investors interpreted Trump’s victory as broadly good for business, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leaping more than 1,500 points on Wednesday.

“This should be a positive for the luxury sector,” said Bernstein analyst Luca Solca. “Investors believe that a Trump presidency will benefit the US economy; if the US economy is strong, the global economy is also strong.”

The picture was mixed for fashion. Shares in some US companies, including Gap, Lululemon and Nike, fell.

The uneven performance in part reflects uncertainty around trade. The fashion industry has been preparing for months for the potential return of Trump, focusing most intently on his promise to levy tariffs on imports from most countries, and in particular China, by far the biggest source of apparel imports.

While some brands are adjusting their supply chains – Puma said Wednesday in an earnings call it was ready to shift suppliers to avoid tariffs – the most common response will be to raise prices, which several brands have already indicated they will do. The National Retail Federation published Monday a study that found Trump’s proposed tariffs would hamper consumer spending power by $50 billion or more each year.

“The question is, to what extent will campaign rhetoric translate into actual proposals?” said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association. “If the past is prologue, President Trump is very likely to be very aggressive out of the gate on tariffs.”

Were Trump to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 60 percent, fashion would essentially be in unknown territory. The value of the yuan fell against the dollar Wednesday and Chinese stocks tumbled. Another unknown is how Chinese President Xi Jinping would retaliate, such as by introducing export controls or tariffs on American-made goods. Shares in some publicly traded Chinese fashion companies, including Anta and Li Ning, declined on Wednesday.

Under Trump’s proposals, the tariffs are meant to incentivise domestic manufacturing. But this would require hundreds of retailers to upend their entire supply chains based in China, where there is unparalleled capacity and expertise for apparel production.

“Regardless of the industry’s efforts to diversify their sourcing, a large, large percentage of brands manufacture in China,” said Gary Wassner, whose firm Hilldun helps finance production for hundreds of American fashion brands. “If more tariffs are imposed on Chinese goods coming into the country, it would be devastating to the consumer and to the designers who manufacture there.”

This could be a boon to some independent companies that still make clothes in the US, including luxury brands based in New York.

“I’m optimistic about the emphasis on American Made,” Velez said in her statement. “I think it’s premature to hand-wring about tariffs at present, especially when these sorts of policies are designed to impact much larger corporations than the average fashion brand.”

Others, including Scott and Chavarria, worry about what it could mean for their supply chains and the cost of doing business.

Trump’s plans for tariffs won’t become clear until next year. In the meantime, retailers may benefit simply from the end of the contentious campaign.

“There’s really just going to be a release in terms of this pent up anxiety around the election,” said Katie Thomas, analyst at Kearney’s consumer institute. “There’s been a little bit of holdback, and it will be like ‘that big bogey is behind us.’”

Climate Efforts Thwarted

Another major concern among fashion insiders is the likelihood that Trump’s administration will reverse federal efforts to curb greenhouse emissions and ramp up oil production. Trump has referred to the climate crisis as a “scam,” and appointed climate deniers in top posts in his cabinet during his first administration.

“Trump, Vance and all other climate chaos denier politicians will greatly hasten the chance we won’t even have a liveable planet for our children and other wild things,” Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard said in a statement posted to the company’s Instagram page Monday.

For the fashion business, the about-face on climate as well as many other issues could represent a meaningful setback.

“By now, we all know that the fashion industry can’t just focus on the business side — it has to be responsible for the planet, fair wages, diversity, and human rights, too. I can only assume the Trump administration is putting business interests front and centre, which will most likely be at the expense of creative, environmental, and human values which at this moment in time, would be extremely unfortunate,” said consultant Julie Gilhart in a statement.

Some fear that Trump’s victory demonstrates America’s endorsement for his vitriolic rhetoric around race, women’s rights and immigration.

“Our work is even more important now. We have to keep pushing forward and keep doing what we do,” said Chavarria.

Robert Williams, Vikram Kansara and Robb Young contributed to reporting.